Introduction
Shrimp is among the most valuable aquatic commodities worldwide due to its high nutritional value and economic significance. In recent decades, shrimp aquaculture has become a major driver of employment, income generation, and export growth in coastal nations (Ray et al., 2021). The global shrimp market continues to expand, supported by population growth, urbanization, and lifestyle changes that have increased demand for high-protein and low-calorie foods (N’Souvi et al., 2024). Shrimp is rich in essential nutrients, including iodine, zinc, selenium, phosphorus, and vitamin B12, which support immune function, wound healing, and overall health (USDA, 2019; Berkheiser, 2023; Sass, 2024). Among farmed species, the Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei) dominates global aquaculture production, accounting for about 90% of shrimp farms worldwide (Dugassa and Gaetan, 2018). Its global production reached 5.8 million tons in 2020 (Asmild et al., 2024). Leading producers, including Ecuador, China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, collectively supply about 74% of global shrimp output (FAO, 2023; Jory, 2023; Mandal and Singh, 2025). Iran, with suitable climatic conditions and access to southern and northern coastal waters, has emerged as a significant shrimp producer (Mirzaei et al., 2021). In 2023, the country’s total aquaculture production reached 639,936 tons, while total marine catch was 778,278 tons (IFO, 2023). Major shrimp-producing provinces include Bushehr, Hormozgan, and Golestan. These figures highlight Iran’s strong potential for expanding shrimp exports. However, realizing this potential depends on accurately identifying and prioritizing export markets. Incorrect market targeting may reduce profitability and market share (Mora, 2023). Although several studies have analyzed seafood exports using multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches such as AHP, TOPSIS, and fuzzy extensions (Çelik & Akmermer, 2021; Adeli, 2022; Majidian et al., 2025), few have focused on shrimp exports. The present study addresses this gap by employing a hybrid framework integrating the Best–Worst Method (BWM) and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) to evaluate and rank 194 countries based on nine key criteria, offering a robust model for strategic export market selection.
Methodology
This applied study employed a descriptive, analytical, and quantitative design aimed at identifying and prioritizing export markets for Iranian shrimp. Initial criteria were extracted through a comprehensive literature review covering aquaculture studies and multicriteria decision-making frameworks. To ensure the validity and adequacy of the selected criteria, a modified Delphi method was conducted in two rounds with 12 experts from the aquaculture and export sectors. The Kendall coefficient of 0.937 indicated a strong consensus among participants. Consequently, nine indicators with the highest agreement were retained: Gini coefficient, geographical distance, population, income per capita, shrimp import volume, shrimp import growth rate, inflation rate, political stability, and total exports. The relative weights of these indicators were calculated using the Best–Worst Method (BWM) as proposed by Rezaei (2015; 2016). Subsequently, the WASPAS method (Zavadskas et al., 2012; Chakraborty et al., 2015) was applied to rank 194 countries. Raw criteria data were normalized using a fuzzy scaling method, and both Weighted Sum Model (WSM) and Weighted Product Model (WPM) scores were computed. Final WASPAS scores were derived by linearly combining WSM and WPM results with λ = 0.5, providing a comprehensive prioritization of potential shrimp export destinations.
Results
Data from 194 shrimp-importing countries were analyzed for the years 2017–2023, with average values calculated for each of the nine selected criteria. According to expert evaluations and the Delphi method, total exports of the origin country emerged as the most critical criterion (weight = 0.3248), emphasizing the role of existing trade relationships in market selection. Shrimp import volume was the second most significant factor (weight = 0.2046), reflecting the importance of market size and demand dynamics. In contrast, the Gini coefficient received the lowest weight (0.0267), indicating minimal influence on market prioritization. The weighted criteria were subsequently used in the WASPAS method. Fuzzy normalization was applied to raw data, and WSM and WPM scores were computed for each country. Final WASPAS scores were obtained by linearly combining these two components. Based on these scores, the countries were ranked in descending order to identify the top 20 destinations for Iranian shrimp exports. China was ranked first (0.7044), establishing it as the most attractive market, followed by the United Arab Emirates (0.2819), the United States (0.2449), Iraq (0.2043), and India (0.2003). Other high-ranking countries included Turkey, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Spain. The presence of both Asian and European countries among the top twenty highlights the geographical and structural diversity of promising markets. These findings suggest that, alongside traditional markets such as China and the UAE, emerging markets like Japan and Germany present opportunities for diversification, enhancing export stability and reducing dependency on a limited number of destinations. The integrated BWM-WASPAS framework demonstrated reliability in evaluating countries based on multiple economic, demographic, and political indicators, providing a robust basis for strategic export decisions.
Conclusion and discussion
The integration of BWM and WASPAS methods identified China as the most attractive export destination for Iranian shrimp, driven by its large population and sustained shrimp demand (average annual import growth rate = 0.385). The UAE ranked second, reflecting its geographic proximity and established trade relations with Iran. Historical trade data confirm that China has been Iran’s primary shrimp export market from 2017 to 2021, except 2020 when the UAE temporarily led (Saeedi et al., 2025). Recent Iranian customs and fisheries statistics indicate that shrimp exports have predominantly targeted China, the UAE, and Russia (IRICA & IFO, 2024). Russia, despite being a major current importer, ranked twelfth in this analysis, illustrating the distinction between descriptive past statistics and the forward-looking assessment provided by a multi-criteria analytical approach. Factors such as high inflation, long distances, and political instability negatively affected its ranking. Conversely, the United States, Iraq, and India were identified among the top five markets due to favorable population size and structural advantages. European and East Asian countries, including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, also demonstrate substantial potential for future expansion (EUMOFA, 2023; FAO, 2024; OECD-FAO, 2023; ITC, 2023).
These findings highlight that combining traditional markets, such as China and the UAE, with emerging destinations in Europe and East Asia—including Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Spain—can enhance export stability, competitiveness, and risk diversification. Total exports of the origin country, reflecting the depth of trade, were the most influential criterion. Meanwhile, import volume and growth also affected rankings, indicating that both demand and growth trends significantly influence export success. This approach enables policymakers to select an optimal blend of regional and non-regional markets, reducing dependence on limited destinations. Overall, it provides a data-driven basis for strategies in the Iranian shrimp industry, supporting diversification and strengthening global competitiveness.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest related to this research or the publication of this manuscript.
Acknowledgment
The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments and suggestions that improved the quality of this research. |
